Week 1 of the NFL season has arrived in earnest, and we have all of the player props you need to target.
Let’s talk sports betting for a few games that caught my eye, including Commanders vs. Cardinals, Jaguars vs. Colts, Saints vs. Titans, Ravens vs. Texans, and Chargers vs. Dolphins.
These games represent a few favorites worth targeting in the rushing department with an expected positive game script.
There are also a few shootouts on the Week 1 slate, specifically on the West Coast in Los Angeles.
Let’s value hunt!
Jahan Dotson over 43.5 receiving yards -110 (Caesars) | anytime touchdown scorer +270 (FanDuel)
Terry McLaurin is expected to play in Week 1 despite nursing a turf toe injury, but that shouldn’t stop Jahan Dotson from having a big year in Washington.
The second-year receiver is one of the most talented young receivers in football and gets what should be an upgrade at quarterback in Sam Howell.
Even better is McLaurin is facing the pitiful Cardinals secondary which features Antonio Hamilton Jr. and Marco Wilson, one of the worst cornerback duos in the league.
Dotson should take a massive step forward this season and the Cardinals are primed for failure in 2023.
Grab Dotson at over 43.5 receiving yards.
He also is a fine bet to get into the end-zone at +270 on FanDuel.
Trevor Lawrence over 11.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM)
This line is low compared to his career projection. Lawrence was projected 15.5 for seven of his last 10 games in 2023.
Last season he averaged 17.43 rushing yards per game and the Colts defense, which appears to have gotten worse and could be without Deforest Buckner on Sunday, allowed the 10th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Lawrence is good for a QB option here and there is a good bet to get over 11.5 on Sunday.
Jamaal Williams anytime touchdown scorer +150 (BetMGM) | 3+ 40/1 (BetRivers)
The New Orleans Saints grabbed a shiny new running back this season and have three weeks to show him off as their featured back.
Though Alvin Kamara is suspended, look for Williams to get plenty of work for New Orleans and while the Titans defense is strong against the run, Williams is a bulldozer near the goal line.
You don’t need to get cute like I am at 40/1, but this is a big time price for someone that lead the league in rushing touchdowns.
The Saints aren’t afraid to plunge forward at the goal line, either.
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JK Dobbins over 59.5 rushing yards -113 (BetRivers)
In a positive game script spot, JK Dobbins should be the bell-cow running back against a bad Texans run defense.
Lamar Jackson could vulture a few carries here but Dobbins should get most of the work ahead of Gus Edwards. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has said he intends to build his team around the run game before opening it up to passes.
Back Dobbins at a reasonable number here.
Austin Ekeler over 4.5 receptions -112 (FanDuel) | over 30.5 receiving yards -130 (PointsBet)
These numbers are low because of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s historical reluctance to dump the ball off to running backs.
Austin Ekeler’s reception projection was at least 5.5 and crept up to 6.5 many times in 2022 so this is a nicely discounted price for us.
He also was hanging around 40.5 receiving yards projection in 2023 and that number is also down big, in a game that is expected to be an absolute shootout.
Sure, Ekeler may run few routes, but this is not the game to fade Ekeler’s receiving prowess.
The total comes in at 51 for the game, the highest of the day making Ekeler a smash spot as always.
