The Nuggets have re-established themselves as the heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals after a convincing road victory in Game 3.
Denver scored at will but communicated much better on defense, rolling to a mostly-sweat-free 15-point victory.
I expect a similar game script for Game 4.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 4 prediction
The Nuggets continue to score at will.
They scored 125.6 points per 100 possessions in Game 2 and then 121.1 in Game 3, shooting over 50% from the field in both games.
Denver is shooting 74% at the rim during these NBA Finals while taking almost a third of their shots at the rim.
The Nuggets are getting anything they want.
They’re bigger and better than the Heat defense, which has run out of answers.
However, the big difference for Denver in Game 3 was on defense.
The Nuggets communicated much better in Game 3 than in Game 2, dispatching all the mix-ups and mistakes that plagued them in their home defeat.
As a result, the Heat only 37% of their field goal attempts, scoring only 94 points and losing by double-digits despite recording only four turnovers.
The Heat are bound to commit more turnovers going forward, so I only see Miami scoring less in the coming games.
Of course, Miami could start shooting lights out from the 3-point line again, and momentum would swing back the other way.
However, Denver’s improved defense has begun to limit Miami’s 3-point opportunities.
After posting a 41% and 45% 3-point attempt rate during the first two games of the Finals, the Heat launched recorded only a 38% 3-point attempt rate in Game 3.
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In short, Denver’s defense has adjusted to Miami’s offense, but the Heat’s defense can’t adjust to the Nuggets’ offense.
Therefore, I’m all over the Nuggets in Game 4. ShotQualityBets’ model projects Denver as a 7.8-point road favorite on Friday, so there’s loads of value in the current market number available at Caesars.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 4 pick
Nuggets -3.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook) | Play to -5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)