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Super Bowl 2023 prop picks: Why you need to bet on a goal-line touchdown

When it comes to Super Bowl 2023 prop bets, overs and touchdowns usually rule the day for the average bettor. But there’s one touchdown bet that everyone should bet under ahead of Super Bowl 57 – the length of the game’s shortest score.

Betting under 1.5 yards on the shortest touchdown has long been a cash cow for Super Bowl prop bettors, hitting in 35 of 56 games overall (62.5%) and six of the last seven contests. And with the under dealing at -155 at BetMGM as of Thursday, there’s still plenty of value in betting on a 1-yard touchdown in this year’s big game, too.

Since 1990, 23 of 33 Super Bowls have featured at least one goal-line touchdown. That’s a stellar hit rate of 69.7% and implies a betting price of roughly -230. Instead, year after year, oddsmakers deal this prop anywhere from -125 to -175 – which is a screaming value no matter how you slice it.

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There’s a common misconception that short touchdowns are entirely a product of strong rushing games, and while that may also be true in some cases, it’s hardly a prerequisite in the big game. Of the last 13 goal-line touchdowns in the Super Bowl, seven of them (53.8%) have come through the air, and we’ve even seen a few quarterbacks make their way to the end zone, too.

Here’s a look at the shortest touchdown for every Super Bowl over the last 10 years:

Patrick Mahomes runs the ball to score a touchdown during Super Bowl LIV between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on February 2, 2020.
AFP via Getty Images

Goal-line touchdowns have come to define many of those games over the last decade. Last year, Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp’s 1-yard grab with 1:25 left sealed the Lombardi Trophy for the Rams. Three years ago, Patrick Mahomes’ 1-yard plunge was the first score of the game and one of a whopping three goal-line touchdowns in the Chiefs’ win over the 49ers.

This year’s matchup plays into this trend even better than most years, too.

The Eagles boast one of the most dynamic run games we’ve ever seen and have already scored 39 rushing touchdowns ahead of the Super Bowl, the most in a season in NFL history. It should come as no surprise, then, that Philly has run for 10 goal-line touchdowns in 17 games – including seven alone from quarterback Jalen Hurts, who scored one last week to cap off his team’s four-touchdown spree against the 49ers.

Travis Kelce
Getty Images

The Chiefs are similarly dangerous from the goal line, scoring seven touchdowns from one yard out entering this matchup. Four of those have come through the air, and three have gone to superstar tight end Travis Kelce, whose 19 targets and eight touchdowns inside the 10-yard line led the league in the regular season.

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Both of these teams rank in the top three in red-zone touchdown rate – Kansas City (70.5%) is second, Philadelphia (68.6%) is third – and feature nearly unstoppable goal-line weapons in Hurts and Kelce. It’s no surprise that these teams combined for 17 short touchdowns in 34 games ahead of their matchup next Sunday.

So when you’re filling out your props sheet this year, consider adding at least one under to your betting card – even if it’s still a touchdown bet at heart.